Oon Yeoh

The following article was published in The Edge Financial Daily on March 13, 2008

The 2008 General Elections was not just a watershed because of the unprecedented gains made the Opposition but also because it decimated so many conventions that have endured for so many decades. Here are some of them (in no particular order of importance).

Penangites split their votes
It's well documented that Penangites vote strategically – BN for state and DAP for parliament. This pattern was even apparent in the previous election. The 2008 election was the first time this trend was turned on its head.

Every single DAP candidate for state and federal won. It was a clean sweep where even virtual unknowns as well as those who were not even from Penang won their state or federal seats.

Representation in government is critical
Especially in the last few days leading up to the elections, Barisan Nasional leaders hammered home the point that non-Malays should vote BN to ensure that they have representatives in government. In other words, if you vote in BN non-Malay candidates, they can fight for your rights.

That message fell on deaf ears this time around because the Opposition had a compelling response: Who can stand up to UMNO better, MCA, Gerakan and MIC or DAP, PKR and PAS? It was a response that the non-Malay parties in UMNO simply could not counter effectively.

People vote by race
In the past, BN succeeded because it could get its Malay supporters to vote for non-Malay component party candidate, from the MCA, Gerakan or MIC. Similarly, these non-Malay component parties could get its supporters to vote UMNO. This is something the opposition could not do in 1999 or 2004. This year, though, the Chinese and Indian swing occurred almost regardless of the opposition party in question or the race of that candidate.

"Chinese and Indians were happily voting for Malay PKR candidates as well as Malay PAS candidates in addition to Chinese and Indian PKR candidates," says elections expert Ong Kian Ming, who has analyzed the results of the 2008 elections. "Who would have thought that PAS would eke out victories in Kota Raja (Selangor) and Titiwangsa (Kuala Lumpur), seats which are barely over 50% Malay? Similarly, DAP probably would not have won in Taiping, Beruas and Teluk Intan (Perak), Seremban (Negri Sembilan) and Segambut (Kuala Lumpur) and Bakri (Johor) if not for some Malay swing against the BN in those areas."

Malays and non-Malays don't swing at the same time
In 1999, the Malays were ready to swing to the Opposition due to unhappiness over the Anwar situation. The Chinese were fearful of Reformasi and regarded the tussle between Dr. M and Anwar to be largely a Malay affair. Meanwhile, the Indian were still supporting BN as they'd always done. So, the Malays swung alone. It cost BN some seats but not by nearly enough. Inn 2004, nobody swung.

The conventional wisdom going into the 2008 polls was that the Indian were angry, they would swing quite hard and the Chinese were not happy that MCA and Gerakan was not standing up for their rights forcefully enough. But the Malays were content – or so it seemed. In the end, everybody swung, giving the opposition roughly half of the popular vote.

All elections are local
It's widely assumed that people vote not just their state assemblymen but also their MPs for their abilities to service the constituency in terms of fixing up drains and potholes. National issues don't matter, except perhaps in urban, sophisticated areas. Not so anymore.

The opposition campaigned on bread and butter issues like petrol and toll hikes and it campaigned on macro issues like corruption, scandals in the judiciary, economic competitiveness and so on. DAP in particular, took a huge risk specifically calling for the people to vote in MPs who would do more than just clear drains and fix potholes.

People vote according to personalities
This relates to the point above, that all elections are local. People vote according to who they like, not because of national issues or according to party lines. If the candidate is well known, well-liked and provided good service to the constituency, he or she will get elected. The notion of "I like you but you are from the wrong party" simply didn't exist until now.

DAP and PKR in particular, fielded a slew of candidates who were virtual unknowns in the areas they contested in – and they won. DAP's first-timer Liew Chin Tong was a complete unknown in Penang. He wasn't even from Penang and can't speak Hokkien, yet he defeated Chia Kwang Chye, a deputy minister. On paper, PKR's first-timer Loh Gwo-Burne (of Lingam tape fame) had no chance of defeating MCA's Lee Hwa Beng. Yet he won. There are plenty more examples where people voted along party lines rather than for individuals.

Malaysians mudah lupa
Over the past four years, there have been many different incidents and issues that outraged different groups. Some of those issues were economic in nature. Others involved corruption, the judiciary, the police force, religion and freedom of assembly, amongst others. But you know what? Malaysians easily forget, or so the saying goes.

Malaysians might have short memories but this is the age of YouTube and blogs, which kept the issues alive and this trickled down, through word of mouth, to the rural folks who don't have Internet access. Malaysians mudah lupa but the Internet never forgets.